A Future Without Growth?

Must we accept a world with fewer people, or are there solutions?

We are in the midst of a historic demographic shift. Birth rates are plunging, and many countries are already feeling the consequences. At the same time, we see a clear pattern: people in major cities are increasingly struggling with high living costs, cramped housing, and stressful work environments. These burdens make it even harder to have children, accelerating the already declining population growth.

In a world with declining populations and increasing economic uncertainty, many risk being left on the margins of society.

At the same time, more and more people are voicing concerns about what happens when populations begin to decline. On one side, there are those who see potential in a smaller population—less pressure on resources and a more sustainable future. On the other side, there are those who fear that we are already on the road to a demographic catastrophe, where aging societies and empty cities could lead to economic and social collapse.

Who is right? And what does this development really mean for humanity’s future?

The Global Trend

China: The population has fallen for the third consecutive year. Despite lifting its one-child policy and attempting to encourage more births, results have been disappointing. Many young people find it unaffordable to start families due to high living costs, demanding work environments, and the lack of social safety nets. The country is now grappling with the consequences of its aging population, putting both its economy and social structures under pressure.

Japan and South Korea: These countries have the world’s lowest birth rates, with South Korea at around 0.8 children per woman—far below the replacement rate needed to sustain the population. Small apartments, skyrocketing living costs, and work cultures that don’t accommodate family life make it nearly impossible for many to prioritize having children. Governments have launched a variety of incentives, such as financial aid and subsidies for families, but these have had little to no effect.

Governments worldwide are introducing measures to boost birth rates. They recognize the looming crisis as populations age and fewer people remain in the workforce. But is the solution really as simple as producing more children? This question demands a deeper look at the long-term consequences and how society can adapt.

Consequences of a Declining Population

The global drop in birth rates presents not just immediate challenges but also amplifies issues that will intensify over the coming decades. With fewer children being born, we face a future where the very structures of society could be severely tested.

First, aging populations will place enormous strain on pension systems and healthcare services. With fewer young people paying taxes and participating in the workforce, many countries will struggle to maintain their welfare systems. For most people, this could mean greater economic insecurity and a weaker social safety net.

Additionally, economic stagnation could become a reality. As the labor force shrinks, economic growth slows. This could lead to increased generational conflicts, with younger people bearing the economic burden of supporting the elderly. Inequalities between those who thrive and those who are left behind will likely deepen.

Many countries have attempted to address this issue through migration, but this strategy is now meeting growing resistance. With nationalism on the rise, we’re already seeing closed borders and a reversal of migration trends. Rather than serving as a solution, this could create new conflicts and further polarization.

On top of this are the psychological and social consequences of a shrinking population. Societies marked by aging and decline may experience a collective sense of hopelessness, which could erode the future outlook of those left behind.

How we choose to address these challenges will determine whether the demographic crisis becomes a catastrophe or an opportunity for transformation.

Elon Musk’s Concerns

Elon Musk has repeatedly warned that declining populations are one of the greatest threats to humanity’s future. He highlights several areas where he believes this trend could have catastrophic consequences:

Demographic Collapse

Musk fears that an aging population, combined with a shrinking workforce, will weaken economies, stifle innovation, and make it harder for societies to function. With fewer young people available to support an ever-growing elderly population, unsustainable pressure could be placed on welfare systems and economic growth.

Reflection:
But is this necessarily a crisis? Or is it a natural adjustment? Perhaps we don’t need to base our societies on constant growth to succeed. By organizing more intelligently and shifting focus away from a growth-driven economy, we can create a balance that works even with fewer people.

For those who are prepared, this won’t necessarily be a major shock. Those who have built up resources and self-sufficiency can adapt to a world with less economic growth and more decentralization. The problem arises when governments step in to confiscate these resources for redistribution. Such interventions could lead to total collapse, where everyone loses—both the prepared and the rest of society.

Loss of Innovation

Musk is also concerned that fewer people mean fewer creative minds to tackle the world’s biggest challenges. Innovation in areas like climate, energy, and medicine depends on giving the brightest and most capable individuals the room to develop new solutions. With a declining population, he fears we will lose this capacity.

Counterargument:
What about all the untapped resources in developing countries? Millions of people have never had the chance to participate in innovation due to lack of education and access to technology. Musk views innovation primarily as something driven by major cities and high-tech societies, but he overlooks the enormous human potential in developing regions.

Don’t think the next Mozart or Einstein couldn’t currently be standing in a rice field in India, tied down by daily survival tasks. If these people gain access to modern tools, technology, and education, they could unleash colossal potential. Raising living standards in such areas won’t just improve their lives but also enable more people to become innovators and contribute to solving global challenges.

And importing their labor to us isn’t the solution. Doing so merely shifts our problems to their home countries, preventing them from building their own societies. The real solution lies in empowering people to develop where they are, so their resources and ideas can strengthen both their communities and the world as a whole.

Space Exploration and Colonization

As the founder of SpaceX, Musk is dedicated to the idea of making humanity a multiplanetary species. He argues that low birth rates jeopardize this vision. A large, viable population is necessary to build and maintain a civilization on Mars, according to Musk.

Reflection:
I completely agree that for humanity to survive as a species, we cannot gamble everything on a single planet—especially when we know we can’t win that gamble. We are doomed to fail and go extinct if we don’t spread to other planets. Earth has already shown us how vulnerable we are to catastrophes like supervolcano eruptions, asteroid impacts, or man-made threats like nuclear war and pandemics. To secure our future, we cannot depend on one planet alone.

Those who go to Mars will have one central mission: to reproduce. Building a viable population on Mars will be crucial, and I believe this will happen quickly. I imagine the settlers on Mars will “multiply like rabbits” because it will be one of their top priorities.

I’m also not particularly worried that Earth’s declining population will hinder us from sending enough people to Mars. Even if we send half a million or two million people to Mars in the coming decades, it won’t significantly impact Earth’s demographics. The challenges we face on Earth—economic, social, and political—will remain the same regardless.

Musk has previously suggested that a foundation of one million people might be enough to ensure a strong start for a multiplanetary civilization. If this becomes a reality, we can begin building defenses against the catastrophes that could otherwise wipe us out as a species.

The Real Challenge
The problem arises if the economy stagnates before we even get started. Space exploration requires enormous resources and long-term investment, and a shrinking economy could slow or halt these plans entirely. Musk himself is reliant on the economy staying strong enough to fund this vision. Whether he lives to see it realized depends not only on technology but also on how well we handle demographic and economic challenges here on Earth.

The Wrong Focus in the Debate

Musk also criticizes the widespread fear of overpopulation, especially among climate activists. He argues that underpopulation is the real threat, as declining populations lead to stagnation and reduced capacity to address global challenges.

Reflection:
I fully agree with Musk that overpopulation is not a real problem—it’s a term I never use because I think it’s nonsense. Our planet can easily feed twice as many people as we have today. The problem doesn’t lie in the number of people but in how we manage our resources.

To support a population of 16 billion or more, we need to stop waging wars and start cooperating instead. But cooperation doesn’t mean erasing nation-states or becoming one global nation. Each country must build itself up and become strong on its own while contributing to broader global cooperation.

We are one people on one planet, but we are also a people of many nations. This balance is crucial: strong nation-states that take care of their own citizens while participating in global solutions. Only when we stop prioritizing short-term self-interest and start thinking long-term and sustainably can we manage a growing population without overwhelming the planet.

A World in Transition

Falling birth rates and aging populations represent one of the greatest challenges of our time. It’s not just about numbers but about how we adapt to a changing world. Economic systems, societal structures, and the way we live must evolve in step with this new reality.

Some view this development as a disaster, while others see it as an opportunity. Perhaps the solution is not to fear the future but to rethink how we distribute resources, create communities, and build a sustainable world—for fewer people does not necessarily mean fewer opportunities.

For those interested in exploring how cities fit into this development, we recommend the article The Crisis Cities Fail to See, where we delve into the unique challenges urbanization faces.

The future isn’t set in stone. It’s ours to shape—as long as we can adapt to the changes we’re already witnessing.