The Invisible Youth

Outside Society.

Politicians claim unemployment is historically low. Yet, one in six young adults stands without a job or education. Both facts are true. That is precisely the problem.

Do you see them – or have you learned that they don't exist? Photo: Gemini

The official statistics claim that unemployment hovers around a comfortable 2 percent. This figure is repeated like a mantra, a collective sedative assuring us that everything is fine. The labor market is strong. The economy is solid. Most people stop listening there. After all, 2 percent sounds like full employment.

The problem is that this number is being given a meaning it never had, and was never intended to have.

What the authorities measure when they talk about "unemployment" is specific: People who are currently without a job, actively searching, and registered in the system right now. It is a snapshot of a small, defined group. It tells us about short-term economic fluctuations, but almost nothing about the reality of young adults who have never even made it inside the entry gates of the workforce.

It doesn’t mean the number is wrong. It means it is narrow. And that is where the confusion begins.

The Real Number Parallel to these comforting statistics exists another figure that rarely gets the same spotlight, yet reveals far more about the structural reality for a generation of Europeans.

Roughly 15 percent of the population aged 20 to 29 stands outside of both work and education at any given time.

Not temporarily for a few weeks between contracts, but without a foothold in the two most important structures society is built upon. This is not a temporary gap. It is a state of being.

When you say "15 percent," it sounds cold and impersonal. But change the scale: In any group of ten young adults, in the prime of their lives, one or two are completely on the outside. Not working. Not studying. Not on their way anywhere. Crucially, for many, this is a permanent state where they never establish a real connection to independent income.

The Transit Zone vs. The Void We must distinguish clearly between unemployment and structural exclusion. Unemployment is a transit zone. It implies you are in the system, applying for jobs, standing in the doorway. Exclusion is different. It describes those who are not even in the queue.

A 24-year-old who dropped out of university and has stopped looking for work does not appear in unemployment statistics. A 27-year-old living on social welfare or family support doesn't count either. These individuals are invisible in the official success story, yet they make up the bulk of that 15 percent.

This creates a dangerous duality. Politicians can claim success based on the economic temperature right now, while ignoring the structural condition over time. The problem arises when leaders use the first number to trivialize the second.

A Generation in Waiting The public debate fuels this confusion. Unemployment is discussed as economics; exclusion is discussed as health or individual tragedy. Consequently, the same people end up in entirely different narratives depending on which statistic you choose.

The tragedy is that this hits the exact age group where adult life is supposed to begin. Your 20s are not meant to be a waiting room. This is when experience is gained and independence is built. The longer you stay on the outside, the harder it becomes to get in. Gaps in a CV don't shrink with time; they grow into chasms.

This cannot be solved by market fluctuations or lower interest rates. It is about how the actual entrances to the workforce function—who they are open for, and who is left behind.

Symptom of Panic The unease is starting to spread among the ruling class. While exclusion has been high for a long time, something is shifting. Mental health issues among the young are skyrocketing. The threshold for entry-level jobs is rising.

You can smell the panic in the solutions now being proposed. In Norway, for instance, the government recently floated the idea of "tax lotteries" for young workers—testing if tax breaks can incentivize work. This is a telling symptom of political bewilderment.

Such measures target those already inside. A tax break helps the young person with a job. It does nothing for the one living on disability benefits. It effectively tests whether those who have work can be lured into working a little more, while leaving the outsiders exactly where they were. It serves as a perfect illustration of a system that no longer understands the problem it is trying to solve.

The Uncomfortable Truth If the problem was simply that young people "didn't want to work," why has the number remained so high for so long? And if the solution was slightly lower taxes, why hasn't the market fixed this years ago?

The answer is uncomfortably simple. This is not primarily about will. It is about structure.

The entrances have become narrower. The steps have become steeper. Our society has become more efficient, more competence-driven, and less forgiving. We are seeing a surge in young people with mental health struggles, often closely linked to a society where the pace is relentless and the margin for error is zero. For many, the healthcare system becomes the entrance to the welfare state, not because they are physically ill, but because it is the only door that is actually open.

The AI Accelerator Enter Artificial Intelligence and robotics. Not as a doomsday machine, but as a silent accelerator of existing trends. The need for humans isn't disappearing, but the need for many humans is. One employee with the right AI tools can do the job that used to require three. Entry-level jobs become fewer, on-the-job training becomes a "cost," and the requirement to be productive from day one becomes the norm.

In this landscape, it is not the strongest who lose out. It is those already on the edge. Those who didn't finish their degree. Those who needed a bit more time. Those who didn't fit the template. For them, exclusion is becoming a permanent condition.

When the Floor Rises The most disturbing thought isn't that we've had 15 percent exclusion for years. It's the thought that this number might be becoming a floor, not a ceiling. That what we viewed as a stable level might start creeping upward. First quietly. Then noticeably. And finally, impossible to explain away—right as the aging population in Europe explodes and the need for labor is greater than ever.

Because when these young people don't enter the workforce in their 20s, they don't disappear. They turn 30. Then 40. And then, this is no longer a story about "youth," but about the structural viability of our societies.

Perhaps the real question isn't whether tax breaks work, or how fast AI will take jobs. Maybe the question is far more fundamental:

What do we do when a society built entirely around work can no longer let everyone in—and still pretends the problem is a lack of motivation?